The 2018 campaign (mostly) comes to an end today. If the polls and our forecasts are right, the Democrats and Republicans will each have something to be happy about.
Democrats are favored to take back the House, while Republicans are favored to maintain control of the Senate.
Our final House forecast has Democrats earning 227 seats to the Republicans 208. That’s a net gain of 32 seats from the 195 they hold right now. Democrats only need a net gain of 23 to win the 218 seats necessary for a majority.
But as we have noted all along, our forecasts come with a margin of error. Specifically, our 95% confidence interval finds that Democrats could win as few as 207 seats (11 short of a majority) to as many 255.
Our final Senate forecast is something else altogether. It has Republicans controlling 52 seats and Democrats (and Independents who caucus with them) holding 48 seats in the next Congress. If this forecast were exactly right, it would mean that Republicans would have a net gain of a seat since the last Congress.
Note: These aren’t our official projections — we’ll get to those later tonight. These are forecasts and they’re not going to be perfect. Anything within the stated range could reasonably happen, though we expect the result to be close to our best estimate.